UGB #252 - The Battle of North China Arrived Ahead of Time
#252 - The Battle of North China Arrived Ahead of Time
Ren Zhong's idea was good: wait and bide his time until the mechanized infantry brigade's reorganization and joint training were complete, then suggest that Staff Officer Ye launch a heavy attack on the Northeast.
However, the Japanese weren't going to give the Eighth Route Army that much time to develop.
Having risen from a minor nuisance to the North China Front Army and the Kwantung Army to a major threat in the eyes of the Japanese High Command, the Eighth Route Army, after several months of secret troop movements, had finally become the target of a new operational plan.
This plan was internally designated by the Japanese as Operation Zero.
Operation Zero was a massive undertaking, bringing together 20 newly formed garrison divisions, including the newly expanded 107th, 108th, 112th, 117th, 119th, 122nd-128th, 134th-139th, 148th, and 149th Divisions, as well as the 87th Division and the 2nd Tank Division, to form the Ninth Area Army.
This would be coordinated with the Sixth Area Army's Operation Ichi-Go.
To that end, the High Command also allocated 100 Zero fighters and 150 Type 97 fighters, based at airfields in North and Central China, to provide air support for both Operation Zero and Operation Ichi-Go.
They were preparing to launch both operations simultaneously.
The scale was unprecedented, with over 500,000 troops mobilized for the offensive.
The Japanese had essentially mobilized all available field forces that could be moved, even enduring the strain on the war efforts in the South Seas and the South Pacific, to first eliminate the threat posed by the Allied bomber bases in North China and the Henan-Hunan-Guangxi region.
The Japanese High Command clearly understood that if North China couldn't be held, there was a significant risk of collapse in East Asia. The strength of the Eighth Route Army in North China had already surpassed the threat posed by the Kuomintang forces.
Even the most arrogant senior staff officers in the Japanese High Command now had to admit that, after two bloody lessons of encirclement and annihilation, a cluster of 3 to 5 divisions operating independently in North China was extremely dangerous and constantly at risk of being surrounded and wiped out by the Eighth Route Army.
After careful and thorough review by the High Command, they concluded that the North China battlefield was, in fact, out of control. The North China Expeditionary Army was not only unable to contain the worsening situation in Shanxi and Suiyuan, Chahar, and other areas, and unable to rely on its own strength to retake the completely lost provinces of Shanxi and Suiyuan, and the mostly lost province of Chahar, but the entire North China was in a very dangerous situation.
The Central Hebei Plain now only had tens of thousands of Japanese troops. Once the Eighth Route Army in Shanxi Province completed its internal consolidation and reached an agreement with the Kuomintang, a full-scale offensive against Central Hebei would be a fatal threat.
North China was currently in its most dangerous state since the start of the war.
From the present perspective, the Empire absolutely could not afford the loss of North China. This was not just about losing the rich North China logistical base, but the blow to the Empire's morale would be even more unbearable.
There had already been too much bad news in the Pacific. National sentiment was already unstable. If North China were lost, the newly captured Central Henan, as well as the previously seized Qilu region, would all be in great danger. In the worst-case scenario, the Imperial Japanese Army would have to retreat back to Shanhaiguan, abandoning even more land north of the Yangtze River.
In a pessimistic scenario, the Empire's situation in East Asia would become three independent enclaves: the Northeast, Jiangnan, and South China, giving Allied air forces more bases to pose a greater threat to the Japanese mainland.
For the Empire, this was an even more unbearable loss.
Operation Zero, it could be said, had tapped into the last bit of potential of the High Command, and it was imperative to resolve the severely deteriorating situation in Shanxi-Suiyuan and Chahar.
"Operation Zero?" Ren Zhong received the latest intelligence from the codebreaking team, and his mind was buzzing.
He had checked in the main world, and this was a completely new plan that had left no trace in the main world's timeline.
This was an unprecedentedly large-scale operation by the Japanese.
"They are garrison divisions, that is, the so-called Type C divisions with a three-regiment system. Their combat power and strength are completely different from Type A divisions," Ren Zhong corrected.
If they were Japanese Type A divisions, everyone would basically have no chance. Ren Zhong could only suggest that everyone quickly find a way to return to the mountains and fight guerrillas. However, with 20 scaled-down garrison divisions, the current strength of the Eighth Route Army in Shanxi might not be unable to take them on. After all, in terms of terrain, Shanxi-Suiyuan was favorable to the defending side.
"Simply put, the Japanese garrison divisions are weaker than our three Type A regiments, roughly equivalent to the combat power of two Type A regiments and one Type B regiment. The main heavy firepower of the Japanese garrison divisions consists of three field artillery battalions, 24 75mm field guns and 12 105mm howitzers, in addition to three infantry gun companies, 12 Type 41 75mm mountain guns and 12 Type 94 37mm anti-tank guns, and 6 70mm infantry guns, plus 5 light tanks."
"Currently, our Class A regiment has 4 75mm mountain guns, 7 107mm guns, 36 82mm mortars, 45 RPG rocket launchers, and 18 20mm anti-aircraft guns. Thus, the heavy firepower of 3 Class A regiments includes 12 75mm mountain guns, 21 107mm guns, 36 20mm anti-aircraft guns, 108 82mm mortars, and 145 RPG rocket launchers. Compared to the 66 barrel guns of the Japanese garrison division, our firepower is only stronger, not weaker.
Even if we switch to 2 Class A regiments and 1 Class B regiment, losing 1 mountain gun company, 1 anti-aircraft gun company, and 3 firepower companies, we would still not be inferior to the Japanese garrison division. In field combat, our army's heavy firepower has greater mobility, resulting in a larger advantage in actual tactics."
The standard Class A and Class B regiments were initially designed by Ren Zhong with reference to many experiences from the main world. They were configured to counter the firepower of Japanese divisions and regiments, taking into account how to use a combination of Class A and Class B regiments to restrain the main Japanese combat units they would encounter.
To counter a Japanese Class A division, at least 6 Class A regiments combined with an artillery regiment are needed. To counter a Class B regiment, only 5 Class A regiments are enough. As for a garrison division with three regiments, 3 Class A regiments can completely suppress it.
And against a Japanese combined independent brigade, a formation of 2 Class A regiments can also restrain it.
Based on this calculation, if we can wait for the Eighth Route Army in Jin Province to complete its reorganization, with 13 mechanized infantry brigades, 44 Class A regiments, and 76 Class B regiments, those 20-odd Japanese garrison divisions would really be nothing to worry about.
Leaving behind 3 mechanized infantry brigades as mobile combat forces and 40 Class B regiments as mobile field units for rapid defense, plus the local county-level Class C regiment garrison units, as well as the strategic support from the main forces in the border region and outside the Great Wall, would be enough to have a strong defense force to protect the base areas even after the main forces are deployed.
Because the base areas have a strong weapon production capacity, if we can delay for a month or two, the weapons produced would be enough to arm tens of thousands more people. Moreover, heavy weapons such as tanks and artillery can double the defensive strength of the major strategic base areas.
Of course, the prerequisite is that air superiority must be maintained to prevent the base areas' military industry from being bombed by the Japanese air force.
After Ren Zhong went through the data with Staff Officer Ye one by one, Staff Officer Ye also nodded frequently. He had a good grasp of his own troops, but he did not have as clear information about the Japanese as Ren Zhong did.
Of course, in this era, there were few people who knew the Japanese's resources better than Ren Zhong. After all, the main world had too many records of this period of history. Even if some historical data was of varying quality, Ren Zhong could also verify it from multiple different channels to obtain the most likely truth.
Therefore, Ren Zhong's prescience was very advantageous in terms of deduction. For Staff Officer Ye, he often had a feeling of inexplicable awe.
Even if some initial proposals seemed absurd, he would eventually be sincerely convinced.
"Our current weakness is that the mechanized infantry brigades have not yet completed their reorganization, so it is unrealistic to pull them out for a major battle. Therefore, the most likely scenario is defensive warfare, but the current method of defensive warfare is completely different from that of the Kuomintang. We must combine our advantages and integrate positional warfare, mobile warfare, and guerrilla warfare to strive for the greatest results," Ren Zhong pointed to the situation on the map.
"For example, in places like Hanoi that we have newly liberated, we don't necessarily have to defend them to the death. This area faces the plains, and the terrain is open, so the Japanese can deploy a very large force. If we choose to defend blindly, even if the final victory belongs to us, a pyrrhic victory would not be worth it."
Hanoi was a newly liberated area, but Ren Zhong knew that there would still be contention here, so it had not been included in the development plan for industrial zones in the major construction plan. Now that a major war was coming, there was no doubt that this would be a key area of engagement.
"That's true. It's just that in this case, the local people will suffer again. In this world, the common people are too miserable," Staff Officer Ye nodded, expressing his agreement with what Ren Zhong said.
"Now we can basically confirm that we will have a bumper summer harvest. Regardless of whether it is the border region or the base areas, this year's grain output is enough to support the influx of a million new people.
I suggest that we implement a scorched earth policy in Hanoi and temporarily relocate a million people from Hanoi to areas such as Hedong and Shangdang for temporary resettlement. For these temporarily displaced people, we can also adopt a work-for-food approach, with those who have labor contributing their strength to carry out large-scale farmland water conservancy construction in the Hedong and Shangdang areas, and a small number being supplemented to work in mines and factories.
In this way, after the war ends, these people will still have more than half a year's worth of food to take back to their hometowns, and they will also learn how to carry out farmland water conservancy construction, which will be good for building their hometowns. After this war, it is estimated that we will be able to secure victory, and the people will no longer have to be displaced."
Staff Officer Ye nodded. Judging from the route of attack on Jin Province, it would be nothing more than the northern route along Yunzhong to open up the Datong-Puzhou Railway southward, the central route along the Zhengtai Railway westward, and the southern route via the Qinyang-Jizhou and Jiyuan-Yuanqu-Houma passages.
In the current situation, it would be too difficult for the Japanese to go south from the grassland along the PingSui Railway and attack Yunzhong. The powerful enemies on the grassland and the long logistics line would be enough to make the Japanese shudder.
From the perspective of logistical supply and reality, the central and southern routes are the normal choices for the Japanese.
As Ren Zhong and Staff Officer Ye continued to deduce and question, they soon had a gradually clearer framework for the Japanese's strategy. Although this was a private exchange between the two, Ren Zhong knew that after this exchange, Staff Officer Ye would integrate some of his ideas into the Eighth Route Army headquarters' grand strategy. After all, the intelligence he obtained was top-secret information that the Eighth Route Army headquarters could not obtain at present.
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